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2013年03月26日09:25 | 中国发展门户网 www.chinagate.cn | 给编辑写信 字号：T|T

二、今年经济社会发展的总体要求、主要预期目标和宏观经济政策

II. General Requirements, Major Targets and Macroeconomic Policies for This Year's Economic and Social Development

党的十八大科学总结了过去五年的工作和党的十六大以来的奋斗历程和历史性成就，确定了全面建成小康社会和全面深化改革开放的目标，对进一步推进中国特色社会主义事业作出了全面部署。

2013年是全面贯彻落实党的十八大精神的开局之年，是实施“十二五”规划承前启后的关键一年，是为全面建成小康社会奠定坚实基础的重要一年。我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期，经济社会发展具备很多有利条件和积极因素，也面临不少风险和挑战。国际金融危机深层次影响持续显现，世界经济复苏充满不确定性、不稳定性。我们既要看到形势的积极方面，坚定信心，也要看到形势的复杂性，增强忧患意识和紧迫感，兢兢业业、扎扎实实做好工作。

今年工作的总体要求是：深入学习和全面贯彻落实党的十八大精神，高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜，以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导，紧紧围绕主题主线，以提高经济增长质量和效益为中心，深化改革开放，实施创新驱动战略，稳中求进，开拓创新，扎实开局，全面推进社会主义经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设、生态文明建设，实现经济持续健康发展和社会和谐稳定。

今年经济社会发展的主要预期目标是：国内生产总值增长7.5%左右，发展的协调性进一步增强；居民消费价格涨幅3.5%左右；城镇新增就业900万人以上，城镇登记失业率低于4.6%；城乡居民人均收入实际增长与经济增长同步，劳动报酬增长和劳动生产率提高同步；国际收支状况进一步改善。这里，着重对经济增长和物价总水平两个指标作些说明。

关于经济增长目标。这是一个综合性指标，各方面高度关注。今年经济增长预期目标定为7.5%左右，主要基于两方面考虑：一方面，要继续抓住机遇、促进发展。这些年，我国制造业积累了较大产能，基础设施状况大为改善，支撑能力明显增强，储蓄率较高，劳动力总量仍然很大。必须优化配置和利用生产要素，保持合理的增长速度，为增加就业、改善民生提供必要条件，为转方式、调结构创造稳定环境；必须使经济增长与潜在增长率相协调，与生产要素的供给能力和资源环境的承受能力相适应。另一方面，要切实按照科学发展观的要求，引导各方面把工作重心放到加快转变经济发展方式和调整经济结构上，放到提高经济增长的质量和效益上，推动经济持续健康发展。综合权衡，今年的经济增长目标定为7.5%左右是必要的、适宜的，实现这个目标需要付出艰苦努力。

关于物价总水平。保持物价总水平基本稳定始终是宏观调控的重要目标。去年居民消费价格涨幅回落到2.6%，这是我们控制通货膨胀取得的一个重要成果，也与经济运行整体态势有关。今年通货膨胀压力仍然较大，主要是：我国土地、劳动力等要素价格，农产品和服务类价格都存在上涨压力；主要发达国家实行宽松货币政策并不断加码，输入性通货膨胀压力不容忽视；理顺能源资源价格需要留出一定空间；去年价格上涨的翘尾影响约有1个百分点。把居民消费价格涨幅控制在3.5%左右，是充分考虑各方面因素后作出的选择。要切实保障重要商品供给，搞活流通，降低物流成本，加强市场价格监管，保持物价总水平基本稳定。

实现上述目标，必须继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，保持政策连续性和稳定性，增强前瞻性、针对性和灵活性。

继续实施积极的财政政策。更好地发挥积极财政政策在稳增长、调结构、促改革、惠民生中的作用。一是适当增加财政赤字和国债规模。今年拟安排财政赤字1.2万亿元，比去年预算增加4000亿元，其中中央财政赤字8500亿元，代地方发债3500亿元。这主要是考虑到结构性减税的滞后效应，今年财政收入增长不会太快，但财政刚性支出增加，特别是要增加保障改善民生支出，保持对经济增长和结构调整的支持力度，适当扩大财政赤字和国债规模是必要的。同时，目前我国债务负担率相对较低，今年增加赤字后，赤字率在2%左右，总体上处于安全水平。二是结合税制改革完善结构性减税政策。重点是加快推进营业税改征增值税试点工作，完善试点办法，适时扩大试点地区和行业范围。三是着力优化财政支出结构。继续向教育、医药卫生、社会保障等民生领域和薄弱环节倾斜，严格控制行政经费等一般性支出，勤俭办一切事业。中央预算内投资主要投向保障性安居工程，农业、水利、城市管网等基础设施，社会事业等民生工程，节能减排和生态环境等领域。四是继续加强地方政府性债务管理。妥善处理债务偿还和在建项目后续融资问题，积极推进地方政府性债务管理制度建设，合理控制地方政府性债务水平。

继续实施稳健的货币政策。把握好促进经济增长、稳定物价和防范金融风险之间的平衡。一是健全宏观审慎政策框架，发挥货币政策逆周期调节作用。广义货币M2预期增长目标拟定为13%左右。综合运用多种货币政策工具，调节市场流动性，保持货币信贷合理增长，适当扩大社会融资规模。完善货币政策传导机制，加强金融监管与货币政策的协调，不断优化监管标准和监管方式。二是促进金融资源优化配置。引导金融机构加大对经济结构调整特别是“三农”、小微企业、战略性新兴产业等的金融支持，满足国家重点在建续建项目资金需求。拓宽实体经济融资渠道，降低实体经济融资成本。促进资本市场稳定健康发展。三是守住不发生系统性和区域性金融风险底线。引导金融机构稳健经营，加强对局部和区域性风险以及金融机构表外业务风险的监管，提高金融支持经济发展的可持续性。

At its Eighteenth National Congress, the Party scientifically reviewed its work over the previous five years and the historic achievements since its Sixteenth Congress, set forth the objectives of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and deepening reform and opening up in an all-around way, and laid out an overall plan for advancing the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

The year 2013 is the first year for fully carrying out the guiding principles of the Party's Eighteenth National Congress, a crucial year for continuing to implement the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and an important year for laying a solid foundation for finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. China remains in an important period of strategic opportunities during which much can be accomplished. There are many favorable conditions and positive factors as well as a number of risks and challenges for China's economic and social development. The profound impact of the global financial crisis persists, and the recovery of the world economy is full of uncertainty and not yet on a stable footing. We should realize that the situation is encouraging and so remain confident; but also that it is complex and so be mindful of adversity, have a keen sense of urgency, and industriously and earnestly do our work well.

The general requirements for this year's work are:

-- Thoroughly study and fully implement the guiding principles of the Eighteenth Party Congress.

-- Hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

-- Follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development.

-- Take developing in a scientific way as the underlying guideline and accelerating the change of the growth model as the major task.

-- Focus on improving the quality and performance of economic growth.

-- Deepen reform and opening up.

-- Implement the strategy of making development more innovation-driven.

-- Make progress while ensuring stability.

-- Blaze new trails in a pioneering spirit.

-- Get off to a good start.

-- Comprehensively promote socialist economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress.

-- Achieve sustained, healthy economic growth and social harmony and stability.

The major targets for this year's economic and social development are:

-- Increase GDP by about 7.5%.

-- Better coordinate development.

-- Hold increases in the CPI to around 3.5%.

-- Add more than 9 million urban jobs.

-- Keep the registered urban unemployment rate at or below 4.6%.

-- Ensure that real per capita income for urban and rural residents increases in step with economic growth and that work remuneration rises in step with increases in labor productivity.

-- Further improve the balance of payments.

Here, I wish to explain our targets for economic growth and overall prices.

The target for economic growth: This is a general target that is followed closely by all. In setting this year's target for economic growth at about 7.5%, we have taken two factors into account.

On the one hand, we need to continue to seize opportunities and promote development. Over the years, the capacity of China's manufacturing industry has increased considerably and our infrastructure has improved significantly, which means they are better able to sustain development. The rate of savings has been high, and the size of the workforce has remained large. We must better allocate and employ factors of production and maintain a proper level of economic growth in order to provide necessary conditions for creating jobs and improving people's wellbeing and to create a stable environment for changing the growth model and adjusting the economic structure. We must ensure that economic growth is in accord with the potential economic growth rate, the ability to supply factors of production, and the bearing capacity of resources and the environment.

On the other hand, we should, in accordance with the Scientific Outlook on Development, guide all the people to shift the focus of their work to accelerating the change of the growth model, adjusting the economic structure and improving the quality and performance of economic growth, so as to promote sustained and healthy economic development.

In light of these considerations, we deem it necessary and appropriate to set this year's target for economic growth at about 7.5%, a goal that we will have to work hard to attain.

The target for overall prices: Maintaining basic stability of overall prices has always been an important macro-control target. Last year, the rise in the CPI dropped to 2.6%. This was an important result of our efforts to curb inflation, and it was also due to the overall economic performance. This year, China is still under considerable inflationary pressure. The main reasons are:

-- There is upward pressure on the prices of land, labor and other factors of production and the prices of farm products and services.

-- Major developed countries are increasingly carrying out easy monetary policies, and imported inflationary pressure cannot be overlooked.

-- We need to leave some room for adjusting the prices of energy and resources.

-- The carry-over effect of the CPI increase in 2012 will contribute roughly one percentage point to this year's CPI growth rate.

Taking all these factors fully into account, we have set the target for increases in the CPI at around 3.5% for this year. We should effectively ensure the supply of major commodities, boost distribution of goods, reduce logistics costs, tighten oversight over market prices, and keep overall prices basically stable.

To reach the above targets, we must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain continuity and stability of our policies, and make them more forward-looking, targeted and flexible.

We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy. We should make our proactive fiscal policy play a bigger role in ensuring steady growth, adjusting the structure, advancing reform, and benefiting the people.

First, we will increase the deficit and government debt by appropriate amounts. This year we are projecting a deficit of 1.2 trillion yuan, 400 billion more than the budgeted figure last year. This consists of a central government deficit of 850 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan in bonds to be issued on behalf of local governments. The time-lag of past structural tax cuts will make it hard for government revenue to grow fast this year, while fixed government expenditures will increase. In particular, it is necessary to increase spending to ensure and improve people's wellbeing and maintain support for economic growth and structural adjustment. Consequently, we deem it necessary to appropriately increase the deficit and government debt. It should be noted that China has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio, and the increase in the deficit this year will bring the deficit-to-GDP ratio to about 2%, which is overall at a safe level.

Second, we will improve the structural tax cut policy as we continue to reform the tax system. The focus will be on accelerating the pilot project to replace business tax with VAT, improving the way these trials are conducted and extending them to more areas and sectors in a timely manner.

Third, we will work hard to optimize the structure of government expenditures. We will continue to give priority to spending on education, medical and health care, social security and other weak areas that are important to people's wellbeing. We will strictly limit regular expenditures like administrative expenses, and practice thrift in everything we do. Investment from the central government budget will be mainly made in government-subsidized housing projects; infrastructure projects related to agriculture, water conservancy and urban utilities networks; social programs and other projects to improve people's wellbeing; and energy conservation, emissions reduction and environmental protection.

Fourth, we will continue to strengthen management of local government debt. We will properly handle debt repayment and follow-up financing for ongoing projects, put in place a system for managing local government debt and keep such debt at an appropriate level.

We will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. We will maintain a balance between boosting economic growth, keeping prices stable and guarding against financial risks.

First, we will improve the policy framework for exercising macro-control prudently and have monetary policy play the role of making counter-cyclic adjustments. The target for growth of the broad money supply (M2) is about 13%. We will employ a full range of monetary policy tools to control market liquidity, increase the money and credit supply at an appropriate pace, and expand the aggregate financing for the economy by an appropriate amount. We will improve the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, better coordinate financial oversight and monetary policy, and improve oversight standards and their implementation.

Second, we will better allocate financial resources. We will guide financial institutions to increase financial support for structural adjustments to the economy, especially for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, small and micro businesses, and strategic emerging industries, and satisfy funding needs for key national projects under construction or expansion. We will broaden financing channels for the real economy and reduce its financing costs. We will promote steady and healthy development of the capital market.

Third, we will resolutely guard against systemic and regional financial risks. We will guide financial institutions to operate prudently, and we will tighten oversight over financial risks in certain sectors and regions and risks related to the off-balance sheet activities of financial institutions, and thus make the financial sector's support for economic development more sustainable.

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